NFL Picks — Week 12
BUF @ HOU
Thu, Nov 20 5:15 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
64%
Spread: +6.0
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- ESPN BET shows Buffalo as roughly a 6-point favorite with the game total at 43.5.
- QB statuses are not confirmed in the provided info and no major injuries are listed for either side.
- No rest or travel edge noted — neutral preparation for both teams.
- Model/projected win probability is about 64% for Buffalo, so take BUF.
PIT @ CHI
Sun, Nov 23 10:00 AMPick
CHI
Win Prob
56%
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- Picking CHI — model gives them about a 56% win probability.
- Market: 2.5-point spread and 45.5 total — a close, single-score game with moderate scoring expected.
- QB statuses are listed as unknown and no major injuries are reported so far; monitor final injury/QB updates.
- No rest edge noted and weather/travel risks are unknown, so consider this a low-confidence lean rather than a strong play.
NE @ CIN
Sun, Nov 23 10:00 AMPick
NE
Win Prob
69%
Spread: +8.0
O/U: 49.5
Notes
- Pick New England +8 (ESPN BET); the model attached to this pick assigns NE about a 69% chance to win.
- Spread is +8.0 and total is 49.5 — market views NE as a sizable underdog in what looks like a moderate-scoring game.
- Both QBs are listed as unknown in the provided data, so quarterback clarity is a notable uncertainty to monitor.
- No major injuries reported in the supplied context and no rest/travel edge (0 days), so availability and situational factors appear neutral.
NYG @ DET
Sun, Nov 23 10:00 AMPick
DET
Win Prob
74%
Spread: -10.0
O/U: 49.5
Notes
- Pick: Detroit (DET). ESPN BET lists DET as a 10-point favorite (Spread -10).
- Model win probability ~73.6% for DET; overall confidence rated low (2).
- Quarterback statuses are unknown and no major injuries are listed; monitor late-week QB/injury reports.
- Total is 49.5; the large spread implies Detroit should control the game, but weather, travel and rest show no reported edge (0 rest days).
MIN @ GB
Sun, Nov 23 10:00 AMPick
GB
Win Prob
65%
Spread: -6.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- Pick: Green Bay (home). Model gives about a 65% chance to win; spread is GB -6.5 (ESPN BET).
- Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown — starter news could change the outlook, check pregame updates.
- No major injuries are listed for either side in the provided info.
- Over/under 41.5 (about 21 points per team); rest edge is neutral (0 days) and weather/travel details are not reported.
SEA @ TEN
Sun, Nov 23 10:00 AMPick
SEA
Win Prob
81%
Spread: +13.5
O/U: 40.5
Notes
- Pick: SEA (+13.5, ESPN BET) — take the Seahawks on the spread.
- Total 40.5 — market expects a lower-scoring game, so the big spread is the main value.
- QB statuses and key injuries are listed as unknown/no entries here; watch starter updates before betting.
- Model win probability ~81% for SEA, but confidence is low (2/5), so late news could change the outlook.
IND @ KC
Sun, Nov 23 10:00 AMPick
KC
Win Prob
58%
Spread: -3.5
O/U: 49.5
Notes
- KC is a 3.5-point home favorite on ESPN BET, so the pick backs the home side to cover.
- Model win probability for KC is about 58.1%, reflecting a modest edge.
- The total is 49.5, suggesting a moderate scoring game — that may matter for spread movement or prop betting.
- No key injuries listed and no rest/travel edge; QB statuses and weather are unknown, so expect some matchup uncertainty.
NYJ @ BAL
Sun, Nov 23 10:00 AMPick
BAL
Win Prob
81%
Spread: -13.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- Baltimore (BAL) — pick to win; model shows about an 81% chance.
- ESPN BET spread is BAL -13.5, which implies bookmakers expect a multi-score Baltimore win.
- No major injuries listed and both QBs are listed as unknown in the available info — no injury-driven reason to change the pick.
- Total 44.5; rest/travel are neutral and weather was not flagged in the available information.
CLE @ LV
Sun, Nov 23 1:05 PMPick
LV
Win Prob
58%
Spread: -3.5
O/U: 36.5
Notes
- LV is a 3.5-point favorite on ESPN BET; pick remains LV.
- Projection gives LV about a 58% chance to win, supporting the favorite on the spread.
- Low total (36.5) implies a likely low‑scoring, defensive/field‑position game.
- Both QBs and key injury reports are listed as unknown and rest is even — late injury or QB news could change the outlook.
JAX @ ARI
Sun, Nov 23 1:05 PMPick
JAX
Win Prob
56%
Spread: +2.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- JAX is a slight underdog (+2.5) against ARI; game total is 47.5 (ESPN BET).
- Both teams currently list QB status as unknown — watch starter news before betting.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge (same days off).
- Model gives JAX ~56% win probability, so pick JAX on the number.
PHI @ DAL
Sun, Nov 23 1:25 PMPick
PHI
Win Prob
58%
Spread: +3.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- Take PHI (+3.5) — the pick is Philadelphia getting 3.5 points in Dallas (ESPN BET; Total 47.5).
- Model view: Philadelphia carries about a 58% chance to win outright, so the +3.5 cushion is valuable.
- No listed major injuries for either side and both QBs show unknown status — monitor late-week QB updates.
- No rest advantage (0 days) and travel/weather are listed as unknown, so line value is the primary factor.
ATL @ NO
Sun, Nov 23 1:25 PMPick
NO
Win Prob
53%
Spread: -1.5
O/U: 39.5
Notes
- Pick: New Orleans — listed as the slight favorite (spread -1.5) with a model win probability ≈53.4%.
- Game total 39.5 (ESPN BET), a relatively low number — market expects a lower-scoring affair.
- Home and away QB statuses are unknown and no major injuries are listed; check late reports before kickoff.
- No rest/travel edge; small spread means this should be treated as a one-score game, so the pick is a modest lean on NO.
TB @ LAR
Sun, Nov 23 5:20 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
67%
Spread: -7.0
O/U: 49.5
Notes
- Line: LAR -7 (Rams favored by a touchdown) with an O/U of 49.5 (ESPN BET).
- QB statuses listed as unknown for both teams — monitor starter news; status changes would affect the spread more than the total.
- No major injuries listed and no rest edge (0 days), supporting the pregame projection that the Rams should be the steadier side to back.
- Model pick: LAR (win probability ~66.6%, confidence 1) — aligns with taking the Rams to cover a 7-point spread given the available info.
CAR @ SF
Mon, Nov 24 5:15 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
67%
Spread: -7.0
O/U: 48.5
Notes
- Pick: San Francisco (home) — favored by 7 points (ESPN BET), pick remains SF.
- Total set at 48.5, indicating a middling scoring expectation for the matchup.
- Both QBs listed as unknown in the provided game facts — monitor status pregame as it can swing the spread.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge; model/implied win probability for SF about 66%.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.