NFL Picks — Week 13
GB @ DET
Thu, Nov 27 10:00 AMPick
DET
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Detroit (home) over Green Bay in Week 13.
- No betting line or total available, so spread/over‑under considerations aren’t in play.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown, which increases outcome uncertainty.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge noted — rosters/conditions look even.
- Win probability 50% with confidence 0 — pick reflects parity and limited information.
KC @ DAL
Thu, Nov 27 1:30 PMPick
DAL
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: DAL (Dallas at home against KC in Week 13).
- No betting line, spread, or total available to inform the wager.
- Home and away QB statuses are listed as unknown — verify starters before betting.
- No major injuries reported for either side in the provided info.
- Rest is even (0-day edge) and weather/travel details are unknown; monitor pregame updates.
CIN @ BAL
Thu, Nov 27 5:20 PMPick
BAL
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Baltimore (home) — chosen for this matchup.
- No betting line available (spread/total/moneyline), so market info is missing.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no reported key injuries.
- Rest/travel neutral (0‑day edge); win probability 50% with very low confidence, so outcome is uncertain.
CHI @ PHI
Fri, Nov 28 12:00 PMPick
PHI
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: PHI — they’re the home team, which usually provides a small, tangible edge.
- No listed major injuries for either side, so expect near-full rosters unless late changes occur.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are unknown; starter news will be a key factor for game-day outlook.
- No spread/total or weather info and equal rest (0‑day edge), so monitor injury reports and lines before wagering.
SF @ CLE
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AMPick
SF
Win Prob
63%
Spread: +5.5
O/U: 35.5
Notes
- ESPN BET shows SF as a 5.5-point favorite at CLE; pick: SF.
- Model/implied win chance for SF ≈ 63%.
- No major injuries listed and both QBs are currently unknown in the provided info.
- Market total 35.5 points implies a low-scoring outlook; rest/travel show no clear edge and weather is not reported.
JAX @ TEN
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
63%
Spread: +5.5
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- Pick: Jacksonville (JAX) +5.5 vs Tennessee (TEN).
- Spread (+5.5) gives JAX a cushion — pick expects them to win or at least cover.
- Game total 42.5 points points to a lower-scoring matchup, which lowers upset variance from a shootout.
- Quarterback status and key injuries are listed as unknown — monitor pregame updates.
- No clear rest or travel edge; the model's win probability for JAX is about 63%.
HOU @ IND
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AMPick
IND
Win Prob
57%
Spread: -3.0
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- Pick IND; ESPN BET lists Indianapolis as a 3-point home favorite (Spread -3).
- Pick data shows roughly a 57% win probability for IND (0.569).
- Both teams' QB status is listed as unknown, which raises uncertainty for either side.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge (0 days), so expect a close, evenly matched game.
- Total is 44.5 — a moderate-scoring projection supports a one-score margin rather than a blowout.
NO @ MIA
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AMPick
MIA
Win Prob
63%
Spread: -5.5
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- ESPN Bet lists Miami as a 5.5-point home favorite — they must win by 6+ to cover the spread.
- Projected win probability for MIA is about 63% per the provided model.
- No major injuries reported in the supplied notes, but both QBs are listed as unknown — monitor starter confirmations.
- Over/Under is 42.5; rest/travel/weather show no clear edge in the provided context, so game conditions are uncertain.
ATL @ NYJ
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AMPick
ATL
Win Prob
57%
Spread: +3.0
O/U: 37.5
Notes
- Taking Atlanta (+3) — the pick has ATL at about a 57% model win probability.
- Spread is a one-score game and the total is low (37.5), suggesting a potentially tight, defense-leaning matchup.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported for either side; monitor QBs before kickoff.
- No rest or travel edge noted and weather is unknown, so late-breaking info could move a close line.
ARI @ TB
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AMPick
TB
Win Prob
58%
Spread: -3.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- ESPN BET lists TB as a 3.5-point home favorite — pick: TB to cover.
- Model-implied win probability for TB is about 58%.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown right now — confirm starters before betting.
- No major injuries reported and no rest advantage (0 days); weather and travel not noted.
- Game total is 44.5, implying a moderate-scoring contest — factor that into bet sizing or props.
LAR @ CAR
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AMPick
LAR
Win Prob
74%
Spread: +10.0
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- Pick: LAR.
- Spread: +10.0 (ESPN BET) — Rams get a sizable cushion on the road.
- Total: 44.5 — moderate scoring environment; both QBs listed as "unknown" so check starters before lock.
- No major injuries reported in the provided data and no rest/travel edge (0 days); model win probability ~73.6% but confidence rated low (2).
MIN @ SEA
Sun, Nov 30 1:05 PMPick
SEA
Win Prob
77%
Spread: -11.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- Pick: SEA (home) — listed as a double‑digit favorite at -11.5 on ESPN BET.
- Total is 41.5, so the market implies a modest scoring game — consider that for props and pace expectations.
- QB statuses are unknown for both teams and weather is not reported here — verify starters and conditions before betting.
- No major injuries listed and rest is neutral; model gives SEA ~77% win probability but notes low confidence (2).
BUF @ PIT
Sun, Nov 30 1:25 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
57%
Spread: +3.0
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- Spread: BUF +3 (ESPN BET) — pick BUF; model win probability ~57%, so the points offer value.
- Total 45.5 — market implies a one-score game; taking the points reduces downside in a close matchup.
- QB statuses and key injuries currently listed as unknown/no major injuries; check final injury reports before lock.
- No reported rest or travel edge for either side, so this is largely a matchup/points play.
LV @ LAC
Sun, Nov 30 1:25 PMPick
LAC
Win Prob
73%
Spread: -9.5
O/U: 40.5
Notes
- LAC is a 9.5-point favorite (ESPN BET); covering the spread requires a clear home win.
- Over/under 40.5 — a relatively low total, which points to a possibly lower-scoring or defense-leaning game.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries in the provided data; monitor final game-day reports.
- Pick: LAC — model win probability ~72.5%; confidence 2.
DEN @ WSH
Sun, Nov 30 5:20 PMPick
DEN
Win Prob
65%
Spread: +6.5
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Pick: Denver — listed as a 6.5-point favorite on ESPN BET (take DEN to cover).
- Model WinProb ~65% (0.654) backing Denver as the more likely winner.
- Both QBs' statuses are listed as unknown — any late news could change the play.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge; total is 43.5, so this looks like a manageable spread to back the favorite.
NYG @ NE
Mon, Dec 1 5:15 PMPick
NE
Win Prob
67%
Spread: -7.0
O/U: 46.5
Notes
- Pick: New England — listed as a 7-point home favorite (Spread: NE -7, ESPN BET).
- Total is 46.5, suggesting a moderate expected scoring environment.
- No key injuries listed for either side and both QBs' statuses are currently unknown — monitor pregame reports.
- No rest/travel edge (0 days) and weather risk not noted; model win probability for NE ≈ 67%.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.